Foreign banks expect Modi victory

It is not just the Narendra Modi government and the Bharatiya Janata Party which are convinced about victory in the ongoing general elections. Others too are, including a couple of multinational banks, Nomura and HSBC.

Underlining the results of opinion polls indicating continuity in the Lok Sabha polls, Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi reportedly hinted at policy continuity in a research report. Pegging the average annual growth at 7 per cent during 2024-28, Nomura said that the government may consider the more politically contentious moves like of land, labor, and judicial reforms and simplification of the tax administration.

Estimating the BJP’s tally to rise to 323 from 303 in 2019, and the ruling coalition NDA’s score at 388, HSBC economist Pranjul Bhandari said that implementing easy-to-moderate reforms can deliver 6.5 per cent growth over the medium term. “For growth over 7.5 per cent, moderate-to-hard reforms will be necessary,” the HSBC report said.

The report categorized infrastructure, facilitating business in electronics and electric vehicles, and privatization as easy reforms. Moderate reforms entail improving local government funding, simplifying tax systems, and upgrading infrastructure financing models. Difficult reforms involve subsidies, implementing land and labor reforms, and modernizing education and healthcare systems.

The Nomura report suggested that India will remain the fastest growing major economy, expanding 6.6 per cent this fiscal.